What Trump’s election win means for Ukraine’s war with Russia

Donald Trump said repeatedly during his campaign to return to the United States presidency that he could quickly negotiate an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine. There is now concern in Ukraine and among its allies that once Trump is inaugurated next January, the US will back away from supporting the effort to undo the Russian invasion.
Officials in countries on the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) especially worry that if Ukraine is weakened to the point of having to agree to surrender land, it will embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin and other leaders with territorial ambitions. 
In a September presidential debate, Trump sidestepped a question about whether he wanted Ukraine to succeed in its effort to expel the invading Russians.
Instead, he said repeatedly during the campaign that the fighting should stop and that he could end the war “in a day” through a settlement.
His vice-presidential running mate, JD Vance, said in an interview in September that a deal would “probably” entail Russia retaining the land it has seized in Ukraine and Ukraine agreeing to renounce its goal of joining NATO. 
Such a vision for the war’s end is far from that of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has said his country could not accept a frozen conflict or trading territory for peace.
Trump has complained about the scale of US support to Ukraine without explicitly threatening to cut it off. But there are concerns that he will use the assistance as leverage in an effort to get Ukraine to make concessions to Russia to end the war. 
The US has been the biggest provider of military aid to Ukraine, with more than US$64 billion delivered since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, according to the US Department of State.
The hardware it has sent includes three Patriot air-defence batteries; 12 advanced NASAMS surface-to-air missile systems; more than 3,000 Stinger surface-to-air missiles; more than 40 HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems; hundreds of armoured vehicles, cannons and howitzers; three dozen Abrams tanks; and stocks of ammunition.
The US has stopped short of giving Ukraine any of its own modern aircraft, even as other Western partners have provided a small number of US-made F-16 jets.
The assistance is part of a total of US$174.2 billion in American aid that includes financing to bolster Ukraine’s security as well as assistance to US regional partners and European allies to replenish inventories donated to Ukraine.
The US also has assisted Ukraine in removing landmines and helped train and equip emergency workers.
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine was compelled to go to war against a much larger army using an arsenal of weapons mostly dating to the Soviet era.
An infusion of US arms proved crucial to Ukraine in checking the initial Russian onslaught and keeping up the fight as the war has dragged on.
In the most contested areas, Ukrainian assault troops deploy American Bradley fighting vehicles to storm Russian positions.
HIMARS launchers give Ukrainian forces the precision to hit Russian targets behind the front lines. And Patriot air defence systems have helped Ukraine shoot down some of Russia’s most advanced and deadly missiles.
At the same time, Zelenskyy has repeatedly complained that while the military support from the US is sufficient to help Ukraine avoid defeat, it is not enough to prevail. Washington so far has been unmoved by his requests to allow his military to use long-range US missiles to hit targets deep inside Russian territory. 
If Trump were to cut off aid without applying levers that made Russia stop fighting, Ukraine would face the possibility of defeat. Its US-supplied tanks, launchers and air defences would run out of ammunition in a matter of months. 
Ukraine’s other key allies – such as Germany, the Baltic states and France – have said repeatedly that they will continue to support the country under any circumstances. But their assistance would not compensate for the loss of US backing. Even if funding kept flowing, Ukraine’s European allies lack the production capacity to send significant supplies of weapons. 
In the wake of Trump’s Nov 5 election victory, Ukrainian officials put on a brave face. Zelenskyy, who has had a troubled relationship with Trump, congratulated the former and future president and hailed his “peace through strength approach” as a formula that could deliver a settlement.
Officials close to Zelenskyy said they are neither unhappy nor frightened by the outcome of the US election. One said they are focused on the demands of fighting the war.